When we talk about strategy, we instinctively think of one question:
How do we win?
Yet The Art of War, particularly Chapter 4: “Formation” (Jun Xing), offers a counter-intuitive insight:
true masters are not defined by winning every time,
but by never being defeated.
In Sun Tzu’s view, victory is not seized through brute force, nor granted by luck.
It arises because you have already completed the work of becoming unbeatable.
Once you stand on ground where you cannot lose,
victory no longer needs to be forced—it follows naturally.
In our careers, businesses, relationships, and major personal decisions, we are often driven by anxiety.
We rush to prove ourselves, rush to act, rush to win.
But experience repeatedly teaches us this:
The more urgently we try to win, the more easily we lose.
The less we rush to win, the harder it becomes to defeat us—
and the more naturally success arrives.
This mismatch of rhythm is one of the most common mistakes we make in work, investing, and relationships.
Today, we use Chapter 4: Formation as a measuring stick
to recalibrate our actions and decisions.
Original Text — The Art of War, Chapter 4 : Formation
(The Original Text in English Translation)
Sun Tzu said:
Those who were skilled in warfare in ancient times first made themselves invincible,
and only then waited for the enemy to become vulnerable.
Invincibility lies within oneself; vulnerability lies with the enemy.
Therefore, the skilled commander can ensure that he will not be defeated,
but he cannot force the enemy to be defeated.
Thus it is said: victory can be foreseen, but it cannot be forced.Invincibility comes from defense; vulnerability comes from offense.
Defense compensates for insufficiency; offense exploits surplus.
Those skilled in defense hide deep beneath the earth;
those skilled in offense move high above the heavens.
Thus they can protect themselves and achieve complete victory.Seeing a victory that everyone can see is not the highest form of excellence.
Winning a battle that the world praises is not the highest form of excellence.
Lifting a hair in autumn does not prove great strength;
seeing the sun and moon does not prove keen eyesight;
hearing thunder does not prove sharp hearing.Those skilled in warfare in ancient times won victories that were easy to win.
Therefore, their victories earned no reputation for wisdom or bravery.
Their victories were flawless, because they only took actions that inevitably led to victory—
they defeated enemies who were already defeated.
Thus, the skilled commander positions himself where he cannot be defeated
and does not miss the enemy’s moment of collapse.Hence:
the victorious army wins first and then seeks battle;
the defeated army fights first and then seeks victory.Those who are skilled in using troops cultivate the Way and preserve discipline,
and thus are able to govern victory and defeat.
The art of war says:First comes measurement,
second estimation,
third calculation,
fourth comparison,
and fifth victory.From terrain comes measurement;
from measurement comes estimation;
from estimation comes calculation;
from calculation comes comparison;
from comparison comes victory.Thus, a victorious army weighs its enemy like pounds against ounces,
while a defeated army weighs ounces against pounds.
The battle of the victor is like releasing pent-up water from a gorge thousands of feet high—
this is formation.
1. Secure “Unbeatability” First, Then Wait for “Victory”
The only thing you can actively control
is not victory, but not losing.
Core Meaning
Those skilled in warfare first made themselves invincible and waited for the enemy’s vulnerability.
Invincibility lies with oneself; victory depends on the enemy.
Victory can be known, but it cannot be forced.
Key Interpretations
- Invincibility lies within yourself:
your capabilities, pace, resources, discipline, and risk buffers. - Victory depends on the enemy:
when they make mistakes, reveal weaknesses, or create opportunities. - Victory can be recognized, but not manufactured:
you can identify when winning is possible,
but you cannot compel it by force.
Applications in Life
Career:
Continuous skill upgrading and stable output (within your control);
organizational changes, vacancies, shifting priorities (outside your control).
Entrepreneurship:
Cash flow runway, scalable delivery, unit economics (within your control);
competitor failures, demand shifts (outside your control).
Relationships:
Self-awareness, boundaries, honest communication (within your control);
whether and when the other person changes (outside your control).
Practical Career Actions
Create an “Unbeatability Checklist”:
- 6–12 months of emergency savings
- At least one demonstrable hard outcome per quarter (case study, paper, patent, open source project, white paper)
- Continuous investment in key skills (advanced certifications or courses)
- A biannual review of assets you can carry with you even if you leave (portfolio, network, reputation)
In one sentence:
Unbeatability is your proactive choice;
victory is the natural result of mature timing and positioning.
2. Strong Defense Is Deep; Strong Offense Is High
Build the Base First, Then Take Flight
Sometimes we lose not because we cannot attack,
but because we attack before our defense is secure.
Core Meaning
Invincibility lies in defense; victory lies in offense.
Defense corrects insufficiency; offense exploits surplus.
To defend well is to hide deep beneath the earth;
to attack well is to move high above the heavens.
Key Interpretations
- Defense means fixing what could make you lose.
- Offense means expanding only when you have surplus capacity.
- “Beneath the earth” and “above the heavens” are metaphors:
defense until unshakable, offense until unreachable.
Defense First: Building an Unbeatable Foundation
- Finance: emergency reserves, cost control, diversified income
- Health: sleep, exercise, nutrition—the base of productivity
- Mental: delayed reactions, emotional resilience, regular reflection
- Fundamentals: core skills, standardized delivery, iteration rhythm
- Discipline: weekly goals, retrospectives, metric tracking
Then Offense: Expansion from Surplus
- Narrative & persuasion: pitching, demos, case-based storytelling
- Visibility of results: turning outcomes into evidence (testimonials, dashboards)
- Innovation & leadership: proactively proposing paths and cross-functional integration
- Opportunity capture: showing the right work to the right people at the right time
- Networks & collaboration: relationships as force multipliers
Manager’s note:
If defense is not solid, do not force innovation.
3. True Masters Win Only the Battles That Are Easy to Win
This is one of the most misunderstood—and most ruthless—sections of this chapter.
Core Meaning
Recognizing an obvious victory is not excellence.
Winning a celebrated battle is not excellence.
The masters of old won only battles that were easy to win.
Key Interpretations
- Winning what everyone sees is not mastery.
- Masters do not seek high-difficulty battles.
- True strength comes from choice, not bravado.
Real-World Applications
Markets:
Prioritize niche markets where you hold asymmetric advantages, not red oceans.
Products:
Build features that immediately amplify your unique value, creating small but stable monopolies.
Career:
Choose assignments that strongly align with your skill map;
build verifiable wins first, then expand gradually.
Partnerships:
Aligned values, compatible pace, complementary skills.
With the wrong partners, even strength becomes drag.
Personal Action
- List your three asymmetric advantages
(e.g., industry knowledge + data assets + B2B channels). - Each quarter, choose one “easy-win battle”
where 80/20 effort produces a certain, presentable outcome.
4. Victorious Armies vs. Defeated Armies:
The Outcome Is Decided Before the Battle
Core Meaning
Victorious armies win first and then seek battle.
Defeated armies fight first and then seek victory.
Two Paths
Victorious path (prepared):
Confirm winning conditions → act → stable execution.
Defeated path (hope-driven):
Driven by emotion or hope → act first → improvise → chaos and high cost.
Project Leader Checklist
- Are there clear Go/No-Go criteria?
- Are Plan B and Plan C defined, with explicit exit conditions?
- Would delaying 2–4 weeks significantly increase success probability and reduce cost?
- Does the risk register have owners, triggers, mitigation plans, and monitoring cadence?
In one sentence:
Most failures are not due to lack of effort,
but due to entering the game too early.
5. Measurement, Capacity, Metrics, Comparison, Victory:
The Chain from Reality to Reliable Success
This is a complete evaluation chain that moves from real conditions to dependable odds of victory.
Core Meaning
From conditions comes measurement;
from measurement comes capacity;
from capacity comes metrics;
from metrics comes comparison;
from comparison comes victory.
Thus, the victorious army weighs its enemy like pounds against ounces,
while the defeated army weighs ounces against pounds.
1) Measurement (Scope & Boundaries)
Definition:
Making the situation concrete—scope, boundaries, constraints, resource distribution.
Workplace analogies:
- Projects: clear scope and out-of-scope definitions
- Markets: TAM / SAM / SOM
- Time: deadlines, compliance, hard resource limits
Tool:
One page clearly stating what you will not do.
2) Capacity (Load & Headroom)
Definition:
Estimating how much can be sustained within the boundaries.
Workplace analogies:
- Teams: available hours, parallel projects
- Finance: runway, margin room, fixed cost ratio
- Technology: throughput, peak handling, SLA
Tool:
Conservative estimates plus a 10–30% safety margin.
3) Metrics (Numbers & Signals)
Definition:
Translating capacity into measurable, verifiable indicators.
Workplace analogies:
- Business: CAC, LTV, retention, conversion, MRR, ARPU
- Projects: milestone completion, defect density, velocity, lead time
- Personal: number of works, interviews, proposal success rate, weekly output rhythm
Tool:
A North Star metric plus leading indicators.
4) Comparison (Weighing Trade-offs)
Definition:
Placing options on the scale using shared standards.
Workplace analogies:
- Product: Feature A +3% conversion vs. Feature B −2% churn, weighted by engineering effort
- Marketing: Channel A (high ticket, low volume) vs. Channel B (low ticket, high volume)
- Career: high short-term pay with flat learning vs. steep growth with near-term hardship
Tool:
Weighted scoring matrix (impact, cost, risk, sunk cost, reversibility).
5) Victory (Decision & Execution)
Definition:
After completing measurement → capacity → metrics → comparison, execute decisively.
Workplace analogies:
- Company: retention >35%, CAC payback <6 months → scale
- Project: PoC metrics met → formal launch
- Individual: portfolio ready → job search or promotion negotiation
Tool:
Clear Go/No-Go thresholds.
Summary:
Do not declare victory—weigh it.
When your advantage outweighs the opponent’s by pounds to ounces,
the outcome is already decided.
6. “Formation”: The State and Shape of Victory
Core Meaning
The battle of the victor is like releasing accumulated water from a great height—
this is formation.
Proper Understanding
This does not mean “victory flows like water.”
It describes the state of the victorious side:
- Gradients are established; conditions are mature
- Long preparation leads to sudden release
- Gaps are created before the battle, not during it
Business and Career Images
- Long-term content and community building converting naturally into brand capital
- Years of product refinement and data accumulation producing instant word-of-mouth at launch
- Long-cultivated partnerships activating automatically when a project begins
When formation is complete,
victory is not manufactured—
it happens.
Conclusion: Formation Means Becoming Someone Who Does Not Lose
If the chapter on “Strategic Attack” teaches how to win at minimal cost,
then Formation teaches something deeper:
first place yourself where you cannot be defeated.
- Separate what you can control from what you cannot
- Turn intuition into probability through measurement and comparison
- Defend first, then attack
- Wait for formation to mature, then release
You do not need to win every battle.
You only need to avoid being defeated.
Exploring the meeting point of technology and the inner world is often a solitary journey—but a meaningful one.
If this article has brought you a moment of clarity or inspiration, you’re welcome to buy me a cup of coffee and support me in continuing this kind of thoughtful, in-depth writing.
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